Topps Blog: December 2019

Tuesday, 31 December 2019

Leaked GPU Specs Suggest Xbox Series X Substantially More Powerful Than PS5

A new set of rumors have leaked regarding the next-generation Xbox and PS5 and the GPUs both consoles will bring to market. We’ve known the broad specs of both platforms for a bit — both use AMD GPUs and CPUs, with the GPU based on AMD’s most recent RDNA architecture, while the CPU is derived from the same 7nm Ryzen CPU cores that launched earlier this summer. What we’ve lacked is specific details on the GPU cores themselves.

Eurogamer has gotten their hands on some leak data they feel is fairly legit, and the website’s track record with this kind of information is solid. There have been some rumored APU configurations that leaked earlier this year, but this new data implies the Sony PS5 will feature 36 GPU clusters clocked at up to 2GHz. Supposedly the silicon, codenamed Oberon, is designed to operate in three different modes (Gen 0, 1, and 2) with clocks of 800MHz, 911MHz, and 2GHz respectively. Supposedly memory bandwidth is 448GB/s in Gen 2 mode (though 512GB/s is an alternate possibility) and the GPU can reportedly also be variably configured in terms of ROP and core counts. Eurogamer states:

While a 2.0GHz GPU clock is used for what is described as the fully unlocked ‘native’ or ‘Gen2’ mode, the processor is also tested in what is referred to as Gen1 and Gen0 modes. The former is explicitly stated as running with 36 compute units, a 911MHz core clock, 218GB/s of memory bandwidth and 64 ROPs – the exact specifications of PlayStation 4 Pro. The latter Gen0 mode cuts the CU and ROP counts in half and runs at 800MHz, a match for the base PS4. The indications are that back-compat is an integral part of the silicon, which in turn raises some interesting questions about the makeup of the Navi GPU and the extent to which older GCN compatibility may be baked into the design.

The implication here is that the PS5 SoC contains multiple GPU clusters, just like the PS4 Pro did. Using multiple GPU clusters in the same SoC would give Sony the same ability to turn the clusters on or off depending on which mode the GPU was running in. Alternately, the GPU cluster could be physically unified but designed to allow for this kind of fine-grained power gating. Stamping out identical clusters would be simpler, designing a unified cluster with fine-grained gating is probably more complex but saves on die space.

As for the Xbox Series X, Eurogamer is implying this console packs serious firepower. Here’s the rumored configuration:

Image by Eurogamer

If this rumor proves true — always something to keep in mind — the Xbox Series X will launch packing the equivalent of a high-end PC GPU. The largest GPU AMD has ever built are cards like the R9 Fury X and Vega 64, with 4096 cores. A 56-cluster Navi GPU would pack 1.4x more GPU cores than the 5700 XT, which already competes in the high-end PC GPU segment at the ~$400 price point. While AMD is expected to launch Navi 20 before the Xbox Series X debuts, we haven’t seen any indication that the company intends to dramatically expand the number of GPU cores it offers — Navi improved on GCN’s performance by making the individual cores more efficient as opposed to simply throwing more cores at the problem. It’s highly unlikely, in other words, that AMD would build a 56 CU for Microsoft and then ship a 128 CU design into the PC market.

If this rumor proves true, Microsoft is playing a far more aggressive game than it did last generation. Let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that AMD ships an 80 CU version of Navi 20, which comes out to 2x Navi 10. That would give the Xbox Series X 3,584 GPU cores compared to 5,120 for Navi 20, or about 70 percent as many.

In 2013, the Xbox One shipped with 768 GPU cores. The month before, AMD had shipped the R9 290X, with 2,816 cores. The PS4, at debut, had 1,152 cores. The Xbox had 27 percent as many GPU cores as the R9 290X, while the PS4 had 41 percent. While we can’t draw linear comparisons between console and PC performance strictly on the basis of GPU core count, the PC GPU was obviously far larger, with significantly more compute and graphics resources.

If — again, if — these rumors are true, the gaps are going to be a lot narrower this time around. The 1.7GHz clock speed on the Xbox Series X’s GPU is required to hit a supposed target of 12TFLOPS, but Eurogamer didn’t get that clock speed leak directly. The gap in GPU performance between the PS5 and XSX would be partially offset by faster clocks on the PS5, but only partially.

Frankly, the spec gap between the PS5 and XSX is large enough that you could argue the Xbox specs are less likely to be true. It’s also possible Microsoft decided to pull out all the stops after the disaster of the Xbox One. Doubling down on beating Sony in raw performance from Day 1 might represent Microsoft’s big idea for preventing a repeat of what happened last generation.

If the Xbox rumors are accurate there doesn’t seem to be a way for MS to sell the console at $400 without losing money — and I’ve got doubts about $500 as well, given that the system is expected to also use a high-speed NVMe-attached SSD and GDDR6. Hard drives might be slow, but they’re still cheaper than the equivalent amount of solid state storage. That doesn’t mean MS can’t pursue a loss-making strategy, but both MS and Sony opted not to do that with the initial Xbox One / PS4 after taking heavier-than-expected losses on X360 and PS3 (particularly in Sony’s case).

This kind of configuration would make a lot more sense if Microsoft is serious about a lower-end version of the console and intends to debut both. The PS5’s smaller GPU looks more like what we’d expect from a generational update. On the other hand, if this points to an upper-end Xbox Series X, it means that version of the console is going to pack high-end* PC-equivalent performance. With a 56-CU Navi, 8-core Ryzen 7nm CPU and 560GB/s of system memory bandwidth there’s no way it could perform like anything else.

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Security Camera Maker Wyze Admits to 23-Day Data Breach

Internet connected home security cameras have become a big business with companies like Google’s Nest and Amazon’s Ring dominating the high-end market. However, there are also numerous smaller players like the budget-minded Wyze. This company attracted attention for its $20 security camera and other super-cheap smart home products. However, Wyze now admits it suffered a serious security breach in December.

Wyze security cameras don’t have batteries, 4K resolution, or advanced AI like some devices on the market, but they’re cheap enough that you can keep an eye on your humble abode for a relative pittance. Whereas a 1080p Wyze camera costs $20, the basic indoor Nest Camera costs $200. However, Nest has Google’s account security, which is among the most robust you’ll find. Wyze recently made a grave error when it left a repository of user data wide open for several weeks.

The saga started last week when consulting firm Twelve Security reported that it discovered a copy of Wyze’s database accessible online. Wyze later confirmed the scale of the breach in an email to consumers. The data included camera names, Wi-Fi SSIDs, activation times, and access tokens for mobile apps and Alexa. Passwords and stored recordings were not part of the breach. Reports indicate about 2.4 million users were put at risk.

Wyze says the database was accidentally copied to an insecure location by an employee. The company doesn’t believe anyone’s login data is compromised, but the availability of login tokens could have allowed a determined third-party to hijack accounts. As a precaution, Wyze logged everyone out and reset tokens.

Unsecured Wyze databases, via Twelve Security.

Twelve Security says the database was accessible between December 4th and the 26th, but that’s not the only issue. The company also claims Wyze is routing traffic through Alibaba’s servers in China, which will no doubt set off alarm bells for some US consumers. Wyze, however, denies this claim. Twelve Security also says Wyze’s US servers were never as secure as its Chinese servers, suggesting user data might have been accessible in some form all the way back in January 2019. Wyze has yet to respond to that, but it continues to investigate.

While devices like Wyze cameras can be appealing, it’s important to remember they aren’t bulletproof. This is far from the first time a camera maker has had a data breach, and it won’t be the last. It’s probably a good idea to make sure these devices aren’t pointed at anything you wouldn’t want revealed.

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Chinese Scientist Responsible for Genetically Engineered Babies Gets 3 Years in Prison

The international medical community was aghast last year when a Chinese scientists announced the first ever genetically engineered babies. He Jiankui and his team used the CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing tool to make two twin girls immune to HIV infection but did so without authorization from medical authorities. Now, Chinese state media reports that He Jiankui has been sentenced to three years in prison following a secret trial.

He Jiankui dropped off the radar shortly after the announcement. Many speculated that he had been arrested by the Chinese government, and now we know what became of him. He Jiankui has been convicted of “illegal medical practice” and sentenced to three years in prison along with 3 million yuan ($429,000) fine. He’s also banned from working in reproductive medicine for life. Two co-authors of the paper have also been sentenced in the case. Zhang Renli will spend two years in prison, and Qin Jinzhou has been sentenced to 18 months.

The CRISPR/Cas9 system has been heralded as a groundbreaking tool for editing DNA. The system comes from bacterial cells, allowing scientists to make precise cuts in DNA. Cas9 is a restriction enzyme — a protein that can cut DNA. Scientists can guide Cas9 to the right part of a genome using CRISPR DNA sequences. Researchers have used CRISPR in the lab to neuter disease-carrying mosquitoes, halt HIV replication inside cells, and engineer bacteria that can eat plastic. Editing the human genome with the intention of producing living, breathing people is regarded as irresponsible by most of the medical community when there is still so much we don’t know about the possible side effects.

That didn’t stop He Jiankui, who published his paper last year along with 10 co-authors. The team introduced mutations into the CCR5 gene, which codes for a protein (also called CCR5) on the surface of white blood cells. This protein is important in immune system signaling, but it’s also the route by which HIV infects cells. There are millions of people with CCR5 mutations that make them immune to HIV, and He Jiankui introduced that mitation into embryos. The twin girls born in 2018 are allegedly healthy and have no other genetic abnormalities.

The announcement of the sentence is also the first time Chinese authorities have confirmed the existence of a third gene-edited baby. He Jiankui claimed shortly after the initial announcement that another woman was due to deliver another designer baby in the coming months. So, there are now three genetically engineered people growing up in China, and the consequences of that are still unclear.

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Did Honda’s CEO Say EVs Make No Sense? Not Exactly

Honda CEO Takahiro Hachigo says there’s no future for EVs. Or maybe he didn’t. Comments Hachigo made recently indicate he doesn’t see “a dramatic increase in demand for battery vehicles.” Much of the confusion comes from analysis / commentary from other media outlets reacting to a recent interview with Automotive News Europe. Hachigo appears, at worst, to be honest in noting that demand sucks currently for fully electric vehicles. That honest appraisal disheartens EV-enthusiast journalists who dislike an executive who isn’t a full-on cheerleader for battery electric vehicles.

Tesla has shown there’s a market for pure EVs, not just hybrids, not just plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). Similarly, two decades ago, Toyota showed there’s a market for hybrids that went a mile or two on battery power, the rest of the time on gasoline (but still managed impressive mpg increases). Their dominant products sucked the oxygen out of the market for a decade or more.

What Honda CEO Hachiago Really Said

Here’s the key points from an interview of Hachigo with Automotive News Europe editors Jamie Butters and Hans Greimel, through a translator:

Q (ANE): Honda wants two-thirds of its global sales to come from electrified vehicles by 2030. What is your road to electrification when demand for hybrids and EVs is still undeveloped?

A (Hachiago ): I believe hybrid vehicles will play a critical role. The objective is not electrification, per se, but improving fuel efficiency. And we believe hybrid vehicles are the way to abide by different environmental regulations.

Q: What about full-electric vehicles?

A: Are there really customers who truly want them? I’m not so sure because there are lots of issues regarding infrastructure and hardware. I do not believe there will be a dramatic increase in demand for battery vehicles, and I believe this situation is true globally. There are different regulations in different countries, and we have to abide by them. So it’s a must to continue R&D. But I don’t believe it will become mainstream anytime soon.

What we hear from Honda’s head guy is what you’d expect to hear from pragmatic automaker: a straightforward appraisal of where the market is today. He did not, unlike other CEOs, complain that governments need to underwrite a big charging infrastructure first.

What we hear from some of our fellow editors tracking EVs is disbelief that Honda hasn’t gotten with the program. From Elektrek (“Honda CEO says ‘There Will Be No Dramatic Increase EV demand’”):

Honda EV Plus: first modern EV, 1997-99, 80-100 miles range, 300 built.

The automotive industry is operating on two completely separate alternative planes of existence. Readers of this site are familiar with the overwhelming evidence of EVs approaching an inflection point, and the last gasps of internal combustion. Let’s call that reality. And then there’s Honda’s Takahiro Hachigo, joined by executives from Toyota (and others). In their alternative universe, the inevitability of a pure-electric future is not proven. Nobody wants them.

… Nearly four decades ago, Honda introduced the first engine technology to meet US Clean Air Act standards without the need for a catalytic converter. In 1999, the Honda Insight was the first hybrid. But that’s ancient history. Today, the company remains fixated on 20-year-old technology rather than innovating for the new electric age. … At the same time, Hachigo’s latest statements are entirely out of step with the times. The imperative of global climate change is too urgent for minimal compliance and CES eye candy.

And from Jalopnik (“Ghostly Specter Of Honda’s CEO Still Not Convinced Electric Cars Are A Thing”):

Here comes Honda CEO Takahiro Hachigo, rising from the dead to walk among us in the year 2019—a year in which Tesla has sold more than 255,000 cars [worldwide]—to inform us he is still not sure about this whole electric car thing, revealing himself to be not a man but a ghost of a bygone era.

Honda is also designing a modular electric car platform which they hope to have ready by 2025. Does that count as “anytime soon?” By automaker timelines, probably not, which means there’s plenty of time for more CEOs to die and rise from the dead before Honda completes its EV platform for a future it doesn’t think will happen.

One company dominated hybrid sales 20 years ago: Toyota. Now Tesla is doing the same with EVs. Four-fifths of EVs sold in the US are Teslas. After that, only Chevy, Nissan and BMW sell more than 5,000 EVs year. (Source: Statista)

The EV Market Is Good (For Tesla)

Automakers have lots of rules to follow: crash protection, safety equipment, emissions. Also they have to make money for shareholders. And stay in business. Right now, Tesla dominates battery-electric vehicle sales, controlling 80 percent (182,000) of the 228,000 pure EVs sold in 2018 in the US, which is 1.0 percent of all US sales. What’s left is table scraps. Chevy has 8 percent of the EV market (0.1 perecent of all vehicles sold), Nissan 6 percent of EVs (0.1 percent of all sales). For everybody else, it rounds to 0.0 percent unless you go to two decimal places.

Honda sold 948 Clarity BEVs in 2018. That is a small number: one of every 1,500 Hondas sold, one of every 18,000 cars sold (all brands) in 2018. Clarify is actually three vehicles: a fuel-cell car that converts hydrogen to electricity, a BEV (the sub-1,000 sales), and a plug-in hybrid. Together they accounted for 20,000 Clarity sales, but virtually all of them were PHEVs. Honda marketed the Clarity BEV as a comfortable family car (think Accord with batteries instead of gasoline). But with an EPA combined-driving range of 89 miles, it was a challenging car to sell. Honda will move into 2020 with the fuel cell and PHEV but not the Clarity EV.

Critics scoff at PHEVs as uninteresting for the long term, and they’re probably right. For. The. Long. Term. But in the US with its greater driving distances than Europe, they make sense. You can drive to and from work on electricity alone if you remember to recharge when you get home. And then on weekends you go where you want, mostly on gasoline. Meanwhile, battery technology is improving at about 20 percent a year, so four to five years from now, a 100-mile Clarity BEV could be a 200-mile Clarity. (And, okay, a 250-mile Tesla could be a 500-mile Tesla.) So Honda could lay low until 2025, rejoin the fray then, and not miss a lot of EV sales in the US. In Europe, the company may face regulatory pressure to act sooner.

The Honda E is part of a new architecture coming within five years.

Honda’s Roadmap for Electrification

Honda e, due in 2021 in Europe – Honda’s first minicar since 2001.

Honda will bring to bring to market an electric city car in 2020 called the Honda E, in the spring of 2020. At 157 inches, it’s smallish for the US market. Over the summer Honda told investors and media it’s developing a dedicated EV platform for midsize and large sedans and SUVs. The first vehicles will come to market in 2025. It’s this timeframe that has some media critics upset with Honda.

Right now in the US Honda has these alternative vehicles:

Honda Accord Hybrid, 48 mpg city / 46 mpg highway, this from what measures as a full-size car.
Honda Insight third-generation compact hybrid, 48 mpg city / 46 mpg highway
Honda Clarity PHEV, BEV, hydrogen fuel cell through 2019.
Honda CR-V Hybrid, due early 2020, targeting Toyota RAV4.

Honda appears to be intercepting the glidepath toward higher-efficiency, zero-tailpipe-pollution vehicles. Europe especially is pushing automakers toward cleaner, higher-efficiency vehicles. Honda will begin selling the retro-look Honda e next year in Europe, with a goal of at least 10,000 units a year, possibly more. The Honda e, a minicar, will allow Honda to meet EU CO2 targets in 2020 and 2021 without paying fines.

While we live on the same planet and breathe the same air (more or less), Europe feels the shock more when Russian or the Middle East countries restrict access to petroleum – the US can always “drill, baby, drill” (per Sarah Palin – and Europe is also more concerned about clean air. The US’ concern about fuel consumption and clean air depends a lot on who’s in the White House come 2021. Currently the US supports aggressive petroleum-source development and extraction.

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CoolBitts Launches $2450 PC Immersion Cooling Kit

Immersion cooling manufacturer CoolBitts thinks there might be a market for immersion cooling systems at the ultra-high-end of the market. The company has announced a kit including chassis, coolant, fans, PCIe tray, power meter, pump, radiator, and rear IO panel. Total price? Just $2450 — though the five gallons of EC-120 coolant that you get does typically retail for about $500.

There are two types of immersion cooling system — two-phase evaporation where a liquid evaporates into a gas before condensing into a liquid, and single-phase systems that rely on a pump and radiator. The use of a pump and radiator makes immersion cooling conceptually similar to both closed-loop and open-loop water cooling, with the obvious difference that with immersion cooling, the entire PC is dropped directly into the fluid.

Obviously, this requires a non-conductive fluid. Mineral oil has been used before, but supposedly EC-120 is easier to work with and a bit less hard on motors. The ICEbox can handle up to 750W of cooling and the rear I/O port of the system is kept out of the liquid to ensure connectivity. The system supports both mATX and ATX motherboards and is capable of keeping both a CPU and GPU at a temperature of about 30C according to Anandtech.

Could systems like this power high-end computers of the future? They definitely can, but it’s not clear if they will. One of the major advantages of immersion cooling compared to forced air in the data center is that you waste far less energy. A ratio of 1.5W of power expended per 1W of computation is typical for data centers, advanced cooling systems have been measured as low as 1.08.

Will Immersion Cooling Ever Go Mainstream?

The advantage of coolant systems like this is that they’re as silent as it’s practically possible for any piece of equipment to be. It’s possible for advanced hardware to debut at the server level before waterfalling into consumer systems, but companies would need to get much more serious about immersion cooling in data centers before we’d see any waterfall IP usage over on the PC side of things.

There’s always been an enthusiast cooler market in PCs. It looks approximately like this: High-end air, closed-loop liquid cooler (these two overlap), followed by open-loop water coolers, chillers (water coolers that reduce the water temperature below ambient air temperature), phase change units, dry ice, and liquid nitrogen. It’s not actually clear how immersion coolers perform compared to other options — if I had to guess, I’d rank them between open-loop water coolers and below chillers. The high cost, in this case, is related to the fact that none of the highest-end options for CPU cooling are all that practical, and they get increasingly impractical the higher up you go.

Immersion cooling like this makes sense for dense deployment data centers, but I’m not sure what the enthusiast angle would be. They don’t seem likely to allow for dramatic performance improvements (overclocking, generally speaking, isn’t having a great moment). If this type of cooling is going to ever go mainstream, kits like this will play a part in making it happen, but so far the enthusiast PC community has relied on improving air coolers (or CLLCs) rather than moving to a radically new type of cooling.

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Monday, 30 December 2019

You Can Launch A Project Management Career With This PMP Certification Training

Once you’ve gained several years of work experience, you should start thinking about where your career will take you in the future. For most of us, that means leading our own teams, and the Project Management Professional (PMP) certification will endorse your skills as an effective leader. If you want to take your career to the next level, you can train for the PMP exam with this $79 training course.

The Official PMP 6 Certification Training Course features over 40 hours of training content to prepare you for the PMP exam. This includes 460 practice questions, 524 rapid-fire quiz questions, and 100 definition game questions. The prep material will help you master the 6th edition of Project Management Body of Knowledge, so you’ll be introduced to the latest skills PMP-certified professionals should learn. Finally, you can take this course at your own pace and access it from any device via the web, so you can even tackle it while working full-time.

No team is successful without a skilled leader, and a PMP certification endorses your knowledge to be one. You can prepare for the PMP exam with the Official PMP 6 Certification Training Course, which is on sale today for $79, or 84 percent off.

Note: Terms and conditions apply. See the relevant retail sites for more information. For more great deals, go to our partners at TechBargains.com.

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There’s Still a Serious Chance We Lose the Notre Dame Cathedral

On April 15 2019, the historic Notre Dame cathedral caught fire and burned. Firefighters battling the blaze were able to save key parts of the structure, including the buttresses, facade, stained glass windows, towers, and walls, though the spire and roof were both destroyed. Immediately after the fire, the French authorities made it clear that there was still some risk of collapse in windy weather. Eight months later, there’s still a 50/50 chance we lose the building altogether according to its rector, Monsignor Patrick Chauvet.

Christmas services were not held in the church for the first time since the French revolution. “Today it is not out of danger,” Monsignor Chauvet told the Associated Press on the sidelines of Christmas Eve midnight Mass in a nearby church. “It will be out of danger when we take out the remaining scaffolding.”

Notre Dame scaffolding, pre-fire. Image by Wikimedia

“Today we can say that there is maybe a 50% chance that it will be saved. There is also 50% chance of scaffolding falling onto the three vaults, so as you can see the building is still very fragile,” he said.

The problem with Notre Dame’s restoration is that the cathedral was already under restoration when it caught fire, with some 50,000 tubes of scaffolding spanning the structure. The roof burned around the scaffolding and the spire collapse further damaged it. The problem, of course, is that there’s no way to start fixing the damage without taking down the old scaffolding first. That’s scheduled to take until 2021, at which point the actual restoration work can begin.

There have been serious concerns about Notre Dame’s ability to remain standing without its roof, which acted to stabilize the structure. The high vaulted ceilings of the cathedral also act to stabilize its walls, which is why Chauvet is so concerned — any damage to the vaults by further scaffolding collapse could fatally compromise the cathedral.

“We need to remove completely the scaffolding in order to make the building safe, so in 2021 we will probably start the restoration of the cathedral,” Chauvet said. “Once the scaffolding is removed we need to assess the state of the cathedral, the quantity of stones to be removed and replaced.”

The French government has passed a law requiring Notre Dame to be restored to its exact original appearance. Further damage to the cathedral from scaffolding collapse could make that significantly more expensive, or even downright impossible.

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Mars 2020 Rover Completes First Test Drive

NASA has inched closer to completing its next Mars rover with a milestone driving test. The team at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California fired up the Mars 2020 rover and allowed to to drive around the Spacecraft Assembly Facility clean room. NASA reports the rover passed the test with flying colors, signaling it’s ready to drive on the red planet.

The still-unnamed Mars 2020 rover borrows heavily from Curiosity’s highly successful design. It has six wheels with independent suspensions, allowing it to traverse uneven terrain. In the JPL test, the team set up small staggered ramps to test the robot’s weight distribution as the wheels moved up and down. The rover drove in one-meter increments for more than 10 hours.

The rover has now shown that it can operate under its own weight on Earth, so it should encounter no problems on Mars where it will weigh much less. NASA hopes this rover will cover a lot of ground on Mars — Opportunity holds the current record with 28.06 miles (45.16 kilometers), but Curiosity (upon which Mars 2020 is based) has managed a respectable 13.10 miles (21.09 kilometers).

This driving test also demonstrated the rover’s autonomous capabilities for the first time. NASA designed this robot to handle more decision-making on site rather than waiting for controllers on Earth to send instructions for each maneuver. For this reason, it has higher resolution cameras and additional processing power to create maps and run its auto-navigation software. It should have the necessary muscle, too, with its thicker aluminum wheels and titanium spokes. Curiosity’s wheels have suffered heavy damage from the sharp rocks of Mars, but Mars 2020 should be able to cover more distance before showing wear. Mars 2020 should be able to average 650 feet (200 meters) per day, which is just shy of Curiosity’s best day at 702 feet (214 meters).

NASA plans to launch the rover in summer 2020 when Mars and Earth pass close by each other. It should land on Mars using a Curiosity-style rocket sled in February 2021. The Jezero crater landing site is ideal for the mission to search for evidence of ancient life, as well as current water deposits. It will even store samples that a future mission could collect for a return trip to Earth. The rover should also get a name in the next few months.

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A New Study Indicates Humans Self-Generate Misinformation

A new study into sources of misinformation suggests that humans self-generate it on a regular basis by misrecalling information they’ve previously learned in ways that fit already-existing opinions and biases.

The term misinformation is specifically defined as Merriam-Webster as “incorrect or misleading information.” It is distinct from terms like disinformation, which is defined as “false information deliberately and often covertly spread (as by the planting of rumors) in order to influence public opinion or obscure the truth.” One of the major differences between misinformation and disinformation is motive. Disinformation campaigns are always deliberate, misinformation can be spread in good faith.

The sources of misinformation matter a great deal if your goal is to deepen people’s understandings of facts and improve the quality of public discourse. If you think about how information is distributed, you probably picture some version of a top-down model: Something happens, eyewitnesses and journalists converge on it, and the information they collectively report filters down to all of us through whatever media we use to consume it. The education system uses more-or-less the same model.

Typically, when people think about fighting misinformation, we think about it in terms of fact-checking sources and ensuring the data in an article or textbook is as complete and up-to-date as possible. I check facts like die sizes, launch dates, and benchmark results on a regular basis to make certain that I’m writing factual data.

A new paper published in Human Communication Research suggests, however, that we’ve been overlooking a significant source of misinformation — and it’s going to be far more difficult to fix: Humans appear to self-generate misinformation even when they’ve been given the facts. This study focused on numerical misinformation — i.e., mistransmission of data related to specific factual information that study participants had been given. The fundamental goal of the experiment was to measure whether or not humans would remember numbers better if the claims they were given were consistent or inconsistent with the beliefs of the individual.

To test this, individuals were presented with data on topics like support for same-sex marriage in the US, gender preferences for one’s boss, the number of Mexican immigrants in the United States, and the total number of white people killed by police in 2016 versus the total number of black people. The individuals being tested were polled for their own pre-test expectations on these topics and the data presented to them was given in a manner that was both consistent with what individuals believed would be true or was chosen to present facts they were less likely to believe are true. Table 1, shown below, shows the framing for the experiment:

Individual polling of the test group showed that the poll results aligned with expectations, which is why this is called “schema consistent.” In the case of Mexican immigrants, people expected there to be more immigrants in 2014 than in 2007, when in fact the opposite was true. The first group of participants were asked to answer questions based on the data they had just seen. Their answers were then used to inform the questions that were shown to a second group of people. The answers from that group were used to inform the questions asked to a third group of people.

The image above shows how the system worked. The test was administered using numerical sliders to give answers and using text input. Effectively, this replicates a game of telephone — each person is transmitting the version of data they remember. Before you look at the next slide, let’s quickly review: Americans generally expect there were more Mexican immigrants in the US in 2014 than in 2007, they believe police killed more black people than white people in 2016, they prefer a male boss to a female boss, and they favor support for same-sex marriage. Now, look at what the test results showed. The values on the far left of the graph are the actual statistics, in every case. Wave 1 indicates the answers of the first group, Wave 2 the second group, etc.

When presented with data that conflicted with their own previously held beliefs, humans get really bad at math. The drop in Mexican immigrants that occurred from 2007 – 2014 reverses in Wave 1. The very first people who saw the data literally couldn’t remember the answer correctly and flipped the values, associating 2007 with fewer immigrants and 2014 with more. Importantly, these results continue to diverge when transmitted to Wave 3. In other words, it’s not just that people think that the overall Mexican immigrant population must have risen because of the passage of time. Wave 1 overestimated the number of Mexican immigrants by 900,000. Wave 3 overestimated it by 4.1 million. In this case, the initial figure of total immigrants doesn’t drop all that much and most of the inaccuracy is introduced by grossly inflated estimates of how many Mexicans moved to the US over this period.

With police shootings, Wave 1 manages to remember that more whites than blacks were shot, even if both values are wrong. Starting with Wave 2, we get the same crossover that we saw with Wave 1 — except in this case, the initial value keeps being shoved lower.

The data on police shootings shows a little more staying power. While the absolute values both moved towards reversing, Wave 1 still remembered which group was larger. By Wave 2 — remember, that’s the group that used the answers Wave 1 gave — that effect has completely reversed. This time, however, both numbers have come unmoored from their original data points in both tests.

But if you give people data they do expect, they show completely different mental patterns — not so much necessarily in terms of absolute accuracy, but at least in terms of relationships. In the case of percentage of Americans who prefer a male versus a female boss, the percentages climb towards the group-reported estimate of belief rather than maintaining the initial levels given, even though the initial percentages show clear preference for male over female bosses (aligning with general group preference). In the last case, the number of Americans who favored same-sex marriage was underestimated, while the percentage opposed declined in Wave 1 and then moved back towards the actual value.

Participants in the NIH ResearchMatch version of the study were told that numerical percentages could not exceed 100 percent in the slider version, and also told that the total number of immigrants did not exceed 20 million, which may explain some of the differences, but the charts are in general agreement.

People Remember Facts Less Well if They Disagree With Them

There are two interesting findings here. First, there’s further evidence that people literally remember facts less-well if they don’t agree with them. For all the people who claim they change their mind if confronted with facts, the reality is that people tend to change their facts, not their opinions — even when asked to answer questions about information they literally just read.

This has serious implications for how we think, as a society, about the transmission of information from one mind to another. About a year ago, I wrote a story debunking some rumors about AMD’s then-future 7nm Ryzen CPUs. At the time, some individuals were arguing that AMD’s 7nm CPUs would simultaneously deliver huge price cuts, more cores, large clock speed increases, and a giant leap in IPC, simultaneously. My debunk article wasn’t 100 percent accurate — I guessed that AMD might not use chiplets for desktop Ryzen and reserve them for Epyc instead — but the final chips AMD launched bear absolutely no resemblance to the rumored configurations.

I addressed this topic several times over six months because this set of rumors simply would not die. I bolstered my arguments with historical CPU data, long-term CPU clock scaling trends, AMD’s statements to investors, AMD’s statements to the press, and long-term comparisons on the relationship between AMD’s margins and its net profits. I discussed increasing wafer costs and how chiplets, while a great innovation, were also a symptom of the problems AMD was facing.

Now, let me be clear. I’m not arguing that everyone who read those stories was somehow automatically obligated to agree with me. My prognostication record is anything but perfect and reasonable people can disagree on how they read broad industry trends. There’s a difference, however, between “I think 7nm clocks might come in a little higher than you do,” and “I think AMD will simultaneously slash prices, slash power consumption, and revolutionize semiconductors with generational performance gains we haven’t seen in almost a decade,” despite the fact that there was literally no evidence to support any of these positions.

If you showed up to argue the former, or something that even reasonably looks like it, I’m not talking about you. I’m talking about the vocal minority of people who showed up to argue that AMD was about to launch the Second Coming in silicon form. Those who didn’t predict my firing often suggested I’d be writing a tearful apology at some later date.

My point in bringing this up isn’t to rehash old arguments or toot my horn. My point is that there’s a real life example of this very phenomena that you can go and read about. I don’t know where these rumors started, but once they took hold, they proved quite tenacious. As good as Ryzen is — and 7nm Ryzen is great — the rumors about it were better than the CPU could ever possibly be. When confronted with this, some people got angry.

Short of giving the planet some in-depth training in overcoming cognitive bias, it’s not clear how to reduce the spread of person-to-person misinformation, and the authors conclude that more study is needed here. As important as it is to ensure the factual accuracy of primary sources, the fact that humans appear to generate misinformation in an effort to make that data align with pre-existing schemas means focusing solely on the primary source problem will never address its full scope.

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The Top 5 Games We Played in 2019

What is life without fun? Few things are as fun as getting truly lost in a game you love. As we close out 2019, it’s time to look back on the games that dominated our free time. This year, we have top five (or almost five) lists from Joel Hruska, David Cardinal, Michael Justin Allen Sexton, and Ryan Whitwam. Our picks skew newer, but not everything we’ve been obsessed with is from the last year. These are just the games we’ve enjoyed the most in 2019.

Ryan

Red Dead Redemption 2

As a primarily PC gamer, I was never able to play the original Red Dead Redemption, but Rockstar saw fit to make port the sequel to PC. The game suffered from a rocky launch on PC, and not all the bugs have been ironed out, but it’s still one of the most engaging gaming experiences I’ve had in recent memory. The world is detailed and rich with content, and not just repetitive fetch quests like some games that tout the size of their maps. The storytelling and voice acting are also absolutely top notch. Traveling to distant waypoints in many games is tedious, but the journey is part of the fun in Red Dead Redemption 2.

Pokemon Sword and Shield

Pokemon occupies a unique place gaming culture as a franchise that became a worldwide phenomenon without any full console releases. Pokemon Sword and Shield broke with tradition when they launched on the Nintendo Switch. They still have many of the same problems as older Pokemon games like clunky menus, confusing online features, and bad writing. That’s not why people play Pokemon games, though. It’s about catching ’em all, and Pokemon Sword and Shield do that better than any previous games in the series. In addition to the game’s linear routes between cities, there’s a vast Wild Area to explore. The raid battle mechanics are also a nice addition. You can waste truly obscene amounts of time searching for your favorite mons in these games.

Untitled Goose Game

Who would have thought a goose could be the bane of an entire town? But that’s what you become in Untitled Goose Game. The game presents you with a to-do list and turns you loose on the unsuspecting people of this unnamed hamlet. Some items on the list are simple — steal the gardener’s rake and put it in the lake. Others will take more planning and thought, like the quest to make someone put on the wrong glasses. This game speaks to some sort of casual maliciousness we all have when playing games, and it’s incredibly engaging. You will become the goose, and as you walk away from your vanquished foes, honking and flapping your wings, you feel almost unreasonably powerful.

The Outer Worlds

The Outer Worlds is basically a smaller, quirkier Fallout in space. As a refugee from a stranded transport ship, you have to make your way in the libertarian fantasy that is the Halcyon solar system. You can either support the mega-corporations that dominate the colony or fight to change things. Along the way, you’ll assemble a crew of misfits with their own backstories to explore across the Halcyon system. The settings are fun to explore, and the voice acting is surprisingly good. I will be the first to admit The Outer Worlds isn’t a perfect game; it’s too short, and there’s not enough variation in gear. Still, it’s still one of the best things I played this year.

MechWarrior 5

I love giant fighting robots, and MechWarrior is the premiere giant fighting robot franchise. However, we went almost 20 years without a proper single player MechWarrior game. That finally changed a few weeks ago with the release of MechWarrior 5. You play as the leader of a mercenary group, traveling the stars in search of money and revenge at the controls of heavily armed mechs. The combat in this game is superb — the dozens of included mechs have unique characteristics, weapon loadouts, and roles. These war machines feel heavy and powerful, and it’s an absolute delight to blast other mechs as you fulfill a contract. The game does have some problems with a meandering storyline, and the voice acting is barely passable. I’m willing to forgive that in light of the incredible combat, though.

Joel

Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden

Mutant Year Zero is one of my favorite games that I’ve played this year. It’s not really a full AAA title in scope — think of it as more of a “AA” game, bigger than an indie, but smaller than what a large studio would build. The game is built on the same engine used for the newer version of XCOM, but it allows free-moving exploration in ways XCOM isn’t known for. It’s not perfect — there are definitely a few rough spots — but it feels like a Fallout title (and includes a few easter eggs referencing that game).

World of Warcraft Classic

I haven’t had nearly as much time to play WoW Classic as I’d like, but I’ve definitely had tons of fun with it. Bringing back Blizzard’s iconic World of Warcraft proved to be a popular choice for the company. The mode has been more popular than Blizzard anticipated, though it’s not clear how many players are brand-new to the title versus those coming back to relieve the glory days.

Super Mario World 2: Yoshi’s Island

Don’t look at me that way. I never had access to a console growing up, which means I’ve had a lot of first-time fun with some of the old console games. Yoshi’s Island is a truly amazing game for it’s era, with gorgeous artwork and great level design.

It was designed to be a more ‘accessible’ platform, and I’m willing to admit I need that kind of feature, having basically never played platformers as a kid. I die. A lot. The restore button is going to break off the NES Classic long before any other component. I may not be very good at the game, but I’ve certainly had a lot of fun with it.

Sadly, I’m only in for three titles — I’ve scarcely done enough gaming to talk about it, outside of the above. One of the ironies of writing about the topic is that it’s hard to find the time to actually do it, and life had other plans for Christmas this year. I had planned to write an article about No Mans Sky, which I recently bought, but I’ve only been able to spend an hour with the title thus far.

Michael

Nobunaga’s Ambition: Taishi

I got my first taste of the Koei Tecmo’s Nobunaga’s Ambition game franchise roughly twenty years ago on the SNES. Afterwards I fell out of touch with the series but recently have got back into these wonderful strategy games with Nobunaga’s Ambition: Spheres of Influence and Nobunaga’s Ambition Taishi. Though both games provide an enjoyable experience as you fight to conquer the Japanese isles, Taishi has options to automate some of the more tedious aspects of the game and makes the later stages of the game significantly more enjoyable than in Sphere’s of Influence. Though it’s not what I’d call perfect, it’s currently my favorite strategy game that I feel any fan of the genre will enjoy.

Jade Empire

Jade Empire is sent in a fictional world roughly based Chinese history and culture with Buddhist elements influencing the game’s story. The game also features its own artificial language that was created by a linguist explicitly for use in the game. Released in 2005, I first played this game when I was 14, and it helped to grow my interest in Asia. It’s by far my favorite game of all time, and I make it a point to replay this game at least once every year. Though my hopes for a sequel have yet to be answered, if you’ve never tried the game before its well worth giving it a try.

Sphinx and the Cursed Mummy

This is another game that I first played years ago on the original Xbox. Set in ancient Egypt, Sphinx and the Cursed Mummy is predominantly a puzzle game with some fighting and RPG elements mixed in. I got back into this game this year after discovering that THQ Nordic had released a remastered version of the game with improved graphics. Though the gameplay remains unchanged from the original, it holds up well it’s still fun to play. There is also a fan based mod in the works which includes content cut from the original game.

Fable III

When Lionhead studios launched the original Fable, it instantly became one of the best RPG games in the world. Later games in the series changed drastically and mixed reviews. Though the games were fun, they were also disappointing because of the extent to which they changed. Fable III has never been able to stand up to the original Fable, but trying the game again after a few years I found this game to still be fun to play and an enjoyable experience.

StarCraft 2

StarCraft 2 needs little introduction. Since its release StarCraft 2 has been a crowd favorite with the online multiplayer gaming community. The game also has a long and highly enjoyable campaign that also has plenty of replay value. Though I don’t play online much, I often return to run through the campaign, which is why I opted to include it in my list of top five games for the year.

David

Untitled Goose Game

This game comes pretty close to qualifying as the ultimate un-video-game — at least compared to most current hits. You can’t get killed. At most you suffer from a couple momentary ruffled feathers. There is no time pressure, unless you complete the entire game and decide to try and set speed records. Graphics are trivial and cartoon-like — but artfully thought out. It is fun, addictive, and can be played by anyone. You only need a couple buttons and a joystick, along with a sense of humor.

The plot is simple. You’re an annoying goose who spends your day harassing the unlucky denizens of a nearby village. When in doubt honking is sure to get a start out of them, and help you distract them. There are dozens of tasks you get to try to accomplish, ranging from breaking things to befuddling shopkeepers. Watching and kibitzing can be almost as fun as playing, so don’t hesitate to fire it up when the whole family is around.

F1 2019

For some reason lost in history, our family follows F1 racing. Despite the relative lack of passing or on-track action, we’re addicted. So it is great to be able to “follow along” with the season by playing the F1 games for each season. This year in particular, the game came out part way through the season, so it was possible to drive the same tracks that the racers would that weekend. There are extensive team and career modes, but they’re wasted on me, as I don’t have the attention span for them. But experimenting by driving different cars and different setups adds to the enjoyment of the race season.

Forza Motorsport 7

If it wasn’t for the F1 connection, I’d rate Motorsports 7 as a no-brainer winner over F1, and it definitely has the best AIs of any version of Motorsports. I really enjoy the versatility of the game, with a huge selection of cars, tracks, and race series. It is certainly not anything like iRacing when it comes to racing fidelity and true competitive racing, but the graphics are much more detailed, and I don’t participate in multi-player racing (other than with Avatars) anyway. I also play Assetto Corsa and Project CARS, but Motorsports is my go to if I just want to spend some time on track.

Dirt Rally

The most stressful video game experience ever for me was driving a mountain course in Dirt Rally in VR using my Oculus. I can imagine driving a NASCAR around an oval at full speed (as lethal as that might prove to be), but I can’t imagine driving at high speed on a dirt track hugging a cliff. So for the most part I stick with the forest tracks in Dirt Rally, but I love the combination of needing to drive the car and interpret the messages about the upcoming hills and turns from my rally co-driver.

Ultimate General: Civil War

This is another game where the campaign modes are wasted on me. But the detailed, and carefully-modeled, tactical engagements and multi-day battle strategies are great fun for a reformed hex board gamer like me. And unlike with tabletop versions of military campaigns, I can play this one against the computer any time I want. Like many games of its genre, it doesn’t get updated much, and some elements of it are behind the times, but it looks great on my 4K 32-inch photo monitor.

That’s the titles we’ve been playing — what’s held your interest through 2019?

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Sunday, 29 December 2019

Prep For Today & Tomorrow’s Hottest Jobs With Lifetime Access To This Leading Certification Training

Just because you’ve finished high school or college doesn’t mean you’ll stop learning. Luckily, there are countless resources on the web that allow you to garner new skills at your own pace and from the comfort of your own home. Whether you’re looking to climb the corporate ladder or make a lateral career shift, Whizlabs is here to help, and you can get a lifetime membership today for $59.

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If you want to succeed in the corporate world, you should constantly be learning new skills, and Whizlabs has all the knowledge you need to do so. Normally $4,499, you can get a lifetime membership with Whizlabs for just $59, over 90 percent off the usual price.

Note: Terms and conditions apply. See the relevant retail sites for more information. For more great deals, go to our partners at TechBargains.com.

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Friday, 27 December 2019

No, The Impossible Whopper Won’t Make Men Grow Boobs

Plant-based meat substitutes are becoming increasingly popular as the quality increases and costs fall. You can even buy an Impossible burger from Burger King now. This situation has clearly caused some alarm among meat producers, and they’ve dug up some old pseudoscience to try and convince people that meat substitutes are bad for them. A livestock trade publication called Tri-State Livestock News (TSLN) has resurrected the claim that soy causes feminization in men. Don’t clutch your pearls — there’s no evidence for that.

The post on TSLN covers several points, none of which are free of spin. Veterinarian James Stangle complains about protein measurements, GMO status, and more. The most outrageous claim is that the Impossible Whopper has 44mg of estrogen, which is 18 million times more than a beef burger. He warns that too much plant-based meat will cause men to grow breasts, which is at best a half-truth.

TSLN as a publication is aimed at people in the livestock and farming industries, so the goal here is probably to give them talking points that sound legitimate. However, some conservative news outlets have started repeating these claims, too. What Doctor Stangle doesn’t explain is that an Impossible Whopper doesn’t actually contain any estrogen. What we’re really talking about here is a class of molecules called isoflavones that are structurally similar to estrogen. Many isoflavones can act as a “phytoestrogen” that activate estrogen receptors in the body.

The structural similarities of some phytoestrogens and estrogen (bottom).

Some in the medical community have expressed concern over the effects phytoestrogens could have on people, but no study has yet to show compelling evidence of negative effects. Not everyone metabolizes isoflavones in the same way, but the hormonal impact of phytoestrogens seems generally weaker in most people than the native biological hormones. Someone who is particularly sensitive to phytoestrogens and consumes a huge amount of foods rich in them can exhibit some hormonal changes. There are several anecdotal reports of this is the literature, but that’s all they are — anecdotes. So, saying an Impossible Whopper has 44mg of estrogen is profoundly misleading on several levels. The one case in which a man developed breast tissue as a result of eating soy was from a 2008 case in which the man had been drinking three quarts of soy milk a day. Drinking too much iced tea can cause kidney failure. Drinking too much water can literally kill you. There is no special, unique, or particular risk to eating soy. Also, 5G does not cause cancer.

Most doctors no longer consider isoflavones in soy to be an issue — after all, we get plenty of phytoestrogens in our diet from oats, rice, beans, and even beer. That hasn’t stopped certain internet communities from calling people with whom they disagree “soy boys,” with the implication being that they have been feminized by eating soy instead of meat. Doctor Stangle perpetuates this nonsense with his misleading article.

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Russia Tests Its Alternative to the Open Internet

It’s something of a minor miracle that the internet has expanded to cover the globe without being chopped up into incompatible blocks that can’t talk to each other. Russia is taking a significant step toward doing just that, though. Russia’s Ministry of Communications confirms the country has tested a new national alternative to the internet, known colloquially as Runet.

Russia has been vague on exactly how Runet operates, but experts believe it would be similar to the systems already in place in countries like China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. Authorities claim the test went as expected and regular internet users didn’t notice any disruption in services. Of course, the goal of Runet is to disrupt in profound ways if the need arises.

Runet is essentially an effort to restrict the points at which Russia’s internal network infrastructure connects to the outside world. Should the government ever deem it necessary, it could block those connections and allow Runet to handle online communications within the country like a giant intranet. In that way, Russia could seal internet users off from the outside world to lock down access to information and stifle communication. This setup would also prevent VPNs from functioning as they wouldn’t be able to connect to the necessary servers outside of Runet.

Maybe Russian President Putin will be able to use his Windows XP machine safely on the locked down Runet.

It’s unclear how close Russia has come to implementing Runet, but it might not be long before we see the government restrict internet access in times of unrest. It has already attempted to block access to specific sites and services like the messaging app Telegram. Runet will require the cooperation of numerous ISPs and telecom companies in Russia, making it a complex operation. China and some other countries with heavy Internet restrictions were able to build their infrastructure with isolation in mind.

This comes just weeks after Putin’s government approved a law that will require all electronic devices in the country to have a suite of Russian-made apps preinstalled. It frames the law as a way to promote Russian business and make phones easier to use. However, it may be more about getting people to use services over which the government has control. These apps would also be more likely to work in the event Runet takes over for the open internet.

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