Wednesday, 29 September 2021

New ‘Collision Chain’ Model Challenges Great Impact Theory

The impact of Earth and Theia, as depicted by a NASA artist. (The photo at the top of the story shows the same thing, but visualized by a National Geographic artist instead.)

Great minds have spent many years trying to puzzle out the deep history of our solar system. Far from resembling Plato’s perfect spheres, the current thinking is that while Earth and Venus were clearing their orbits, the Moon was formed by a Mars-sized impactor named Theia smashing into Earth. But that may not be the whole story. In a pair of reports in The Planetary Science Journal, a team of scientists have published a new “collision chain” model for the Great Impact hypothesis of our rocky inner planets’ formation, and it challenges our narrative of how Venus, Earth and the Moon spent their youth.

The authors demonstrate the idea that great impacts may not be the efficient mergers we believe them to be, explained team lead Erik Asphaug. “We find that most giant impacts, even relatively ‘slow’ ones, are hit-and-runs. This means that for two planets to merge, you usually first have to slow them down in a hit-and-run collision,” Asphaug said. “To think of giant impacts, for instance the formation of the moon, as a singular event is probably wrong. More likely it took two collisions in a row.”

To demonstrate their ideas, the authors focus on Venus and Earth. Alexandre Emsenhuber, who worked on the first of the two papers during a postdoctoral fellowship, says in the report that the young Earth would have served as a kind of kinetic shield that slowed down inbound impactors. Earth would have robbed them of their momentum, slowing them down. “We think that during solar system formation, the early Earth acted like a vanguard for Venus,” said Emsenhuber.

To explain the vanguard effect, Emsenhuber uses the analogy of a bouncing ball. A body coming in from the outer solar system is like a ball bouncing down a set of stairs, with each bounce representing a collision with another body.

“Along the way, the ball loses energy, and you’ll find it will always bounce downstairs, never upstairs,” he said. “Because of that, the body cannot leave the inner solar system anymore. You generally only go downstairs, toward Venus, and an impactor that collides with Venus is pretty happy staying in the inner solar system, so at some point it is going to hit Venus again.”

A second paper, published in tandem with the first, uses machine learning to build predictive models from 3D simulations of giant impacts. The team tested their predictive powers on both hit-and-run and merging collisions, to simulate terrestrial planet formation over a period of 100 million years. The authors further propose and demonstrate their hit-and-run-return scenario on the formation of the Moon.

“The standard model for the moon requires a very slow collision, relatively speaking,” said Asphaug, “and it creates a moon that is composed mostly of the impacting planet, not the proto-Earth, which is a major problem since the moon has an isotopic chemistry almost identical to Earth.”

In the team’s new scenario, a protoplanet roughly the size of Mars hits the Earth, just like the standard model. Instead of the Earth simply accreting Theia in one shot, the impactor bounces off in a big sloshy mess. It returns in about a million years for another giant impact, moving slower this time — and that second pass could be the key to better aligning our models with what we see.

“The double impact mixes things up much more than a single event,” Asphaug said, “which could explain the isotopic similarity of Earth and moon, and also how the second, slow, merging collision would have happened in the first place.”

It may also explain the different chemical compositions of Earth and Venus. Because impactors that hit Earth with a glancing blow would have been flung away deeper into the Sun’s gravity well, Asphaug added, “Earth would have accreted most of its material from collisions that were head-on hits, or else slower than those experienced by Venus. Collisions into the Earth that were more oblique and higher velocity would have preferentially ended up on Venus.”

“You would think that Earth is made up more of material from the outer system because it is closer to the outer solar system than Venus. But actually, with Earth in this vanguard role, it makes it actually more likely for Venus to accrete outer solar system material.”

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Amazon Announces an Alexa-Powered Home Robot Called Astro

Big tech companies like Amazon are under increasing scrutiny for the way they use (and sometimes misuse) personal data. Amazon did not take that into account when it announced Astro, its first-even home robot that can trundle around your house, record video, deliver messages, and more. Anyone who actually wants an Amazon robot monitoring their house will have to pay at least $1,000 for the privilege.

Astro looks like a small rounded block with two 12-inch wheels toward the front. There’s a third wheel under the rear end to keep the robot stable. Up front, there’s a 10-inch screen that sits on a short arm. The display can show you content, but at idle it’s the robot’s virtual face. Amazon says it looked at movies, TV, games, and animation to give Astro a bit of personality. The way the eyes move and the expressive tones are supposed to put nearby humans at ease. Exactly how much at ease will probably depend on how you feel about Amazon mapping your house. 

In order to get around, Astro needs to know where it is. Amazon developed a technology called Intelligent Motion, which makes use of simultaneous location and mapping (SLAM). So, the robot uses its sensors to build a 3D map of the space around it. Intelligent Motion devises several hundred potential paths to the goal and then scores them before choosing the best one. Not only does it learn the layout of your home, but it can cope with changes like an open drawer, a pile of dirty laundry, or a dog laying on the floor. 

At its most basic level, Astro does all the things an Alexa-powered smart display can do. You can control smart home devices, view camera feeds, and check the weather. The robot has its own array of cameras, so it can even patrol the house when you’re away. Amazon actually added a telescoping camera to the robot that can see objects that it could not otherwise reach. For example, Astro could check to make sure you turned off the oven. The cameras are able to recognize members of the family, allowing you to drop items in Astro’s cargo bin for delivery. Just tell it who to find, and off it goes.

There are certainly some neat use cases here, but Astro is very rudimentary as far as robots go. It can’t traverse stairs, and the lack of arms means it won’t be able to carry anything outside that cargo bin. It won’t clean your floors, either. It’s a lot like the other home robots we’ve seen announced, but few of them have even gone on sale. Amazon is taking it slow with Astro — customers who apply to order the robot will have the chance to do so later this year for $999.99. Later, the price will go up to $1,499, but it will never be a mass-produced product.

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AMD’s Lisa Su Expects the Chip Shortage to Continue Until at Least Mid-2022

Bad news for anyone hoping for a quick end to the semiconductor shortage. AMD’s CEO Lisa Su is the latest tech CEO to suggest we won’t see a recovery until the back half of next year.

Semiconductor sales will remain “likely tight”, Su said at Code Conference 2021. She predicts that supply will start to improve next year as new manufacturing facilities come online, but that supply and demand may not equalize for roughly another year.

One of the slightly frustrating aspects of the ongoing semiconductor shortage is that it’s never very clear which product or market is being discussed in particular. Take the current situation in the PC retail channel. While AMD CPUs were difficult to come by earlier this year, chips like the Ryzen 7 5800X can currently be ordered for ~$395 at Amazon. That’s below the official MSRP of $449. This may be a flash in the pan, since AMD chips have been harder to find at various points in the year, but the CPU market isn’t showing much sign of shortages right now.

Image by 3DCenter.org

The GPU market, on the other hand, has been steadily moving in the wrong direction since the 4th of July, when prices hit their summer low of “just” 1.5x above MSRP. The situation was worsening earlier this month, though China’s recent decision to ban Bitcoin and crytocurrency mining could have an  impact on GPU demand, at least in the short term.

At the same conference, Su downplayed AMD’s activity in the crypto market, noting it’s a small, volatile market and not one AMD intends to focus on. This is most likely true, but it doesn’t tell us much about how many of the company’s GPUs are flowing to miners anyway. It may be that AMD isn’t selling very many cards to miners because it isn’t shipping very many retail cards in the first place.

Nobody Knows How This Will End

Su’s predictions jive with those of Jen-Hsun Huang and from analyst firms, but it’s not clear how much value we should put on these predictions. The truth is, the semiconductor industry didn’t see the tech boom of late 2020 – 2021 coming. In the immediate aftermath of lockdowns, forecasts were predicting a slump once an early buying boom petered out.

The early buying boom never really wore off, and while there’s been signs of slower growth in some markets, there’s dispute about what to expect in the future. The semiconductor industry has committed to bringing new fabs online at breakneck speed. Capacity buildouts that start coming online 12-18 months from now could arrive just as market demand begins to fall off. GPU availability could improve dramatically now that China has banned cryptocurrencies, or it might not improve in the short term if other issues are clogging the pipes. There are reports that many companies have suffered recent shortages due to plant closures in Malaysia and elsewhere in Asia due to ongoing COVID-19 restrictions.

There are good reasons to think that things will be better 8-12 months from now. More factory capacity should be coming online. More people across the globe will have been vaccinated. Companies, individuals, and governments will have another year of experience dealing with the shortages and issues caused by the pandemic. Hopefully by this time next year, prices will be falling back towards normal.

But at the same time, we recommend readers take these predictions with several grains of salt rather than the usual one. A year ago, there were confident reports that the semiconductor shortage should ease by spring at the latest. Ampere celebrated its first birthday a few weeks ago, and we’re all still here. We’re not claiming that Lisa Su or any other tech executive is wrong, but the pandemic’s impact on the business cycle has been difficult for analysts to predict thus far.

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Tuesday, 28 September 2021

There Might Be a Mars-Like Planet Hiding in the Outer Solar System

Nobody has found Planet Nine yet, but at least we've almost figured out where to look. Image: NASA

If the 21st century has taught us any astronomical lessons, it’s that counting planets is hard. In 2000, there were nine planets, and now there are eight, but that might not last. Astronomers have been on the hunt for a theorized ninth planet in the extreme outer solar system, and now a study suggests there might be another planet out there. Unlike the massive (and completely hypothetical) Planet Nine, this one is believed to be a small, rocky world like Mars. 

All the planetary uncertainty lies in the outer reaches of the solar system, beyond the orbit of Neptune. This is where Clyde Tombaugh discovered Pluto, which we thought was a planet for decades but has since been demoted to a dwarf planet. It was still a notable discovery as the first known representative of the Kuiper Belt, a ring of icy rocks that includes other big planetoids like Makemake and Eris. 

To make sense of the mishmash of objects out there, scientists often turn to simulations that can search for signs of undiscovered planets. And there could be a lot to find out there. “It seems unlikely that nature created four giant planet cores, but then nothing else larger than dwarf planets in the outer solar system,” the study says. 

The team found that models capable of closely approximating the current state of our solar system start with at least one extra planet, something vaguely Earth or Mars-like. This world was bounced around in the outer solar system by the intense gravity fields of Neptune and Saturn until it ended up in a far-out orbit where we can’t see it. It’s also possible the planet (or planets) were ejected from the solar system. 

There may be a planet like Mars lurking in the Kuiper Belt.

We are only beginning to understand how solar systems like ours form, but it’s become apparent that planets don’t stay in the same orbit forever — they might migrate in or out depending on conditions and interactions with other objects. The simulations underpinning this study show that the four large gas giants may have rearranged as they gained mass. Jupiter moved inward, and the others moved outward. In about half the simulations, all the extra rocky planets were kicked out into interstellar space, but in the other half, one of them remained in the Kuiper Belt region. 

The existence of this extra planet doesn’t preclude the existence of Planet Nine and vice versa. We won’t know which (if either) of them exist until someone can find them out there. The upcoming Vera Rubin Observatory might be able to see these objects when it begins surveying the sky in 2023. The ESA’s Gaia star mapping satellite might also see evidence of extra planets, but only if it distorts the light from distant stars as Gaia happens to be watching.

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ET Deals: Dell Alienware M15 R5 AMD Ryzen 7 5800H and RTX 3060 Gaming Laptop for $1,299, SanDisk 1TB Extreme Portable SSD for $148

Experience your favorite games in a whole new way by purchasing new cutting edge gaming hardware. Today you can get a Dell Alienware gaming laptop with an AMD Ryzen 7 5800H CPU, an Nvidia RTX 3060 graphics chip and a blazing fast 165Hz display for just $1,299.

Dell Alienware M15 R5 Ryzen Edition AMD Ryzen R7 5800H 15.6-Inch 1080p 165Hz Gaming Laptop w/ Nvidia GeForce RTX 3060 GPU, 16GB DDR4 RAM and 256GB PCIe SSD ($1,299.99)

The new Dell Alienware M15 R5 features an updated thermal solution that helps you to get the most out of your hardware. The system has powerful components including an AMD Ryzen R7 5800H octa-core processor and an Nvidia GeForce RTX 3060 graphics chip that can run games fluidly on the notebooks 165Hz 1080p display. It also RGB LED keyboard, 16GB of RAM and a 256GB PCI-E SSD. This new system hasn’t been out long, but you can get one now from Dell marked down from $1,693.98 to just $1,299.99.

SanDisk Extreme Portable 1TB External SSD ($148.14)

Sandisk built this external SSD with a large 1TB capacity and a rugged water-resistant exterior. The drive can transfer data at speeds of up to 1,050MB/s over USB 3.2 Gen2, which will far outstrip your typical USB flash drive and external HDD. You can currently buy this SSD marked down from its original retail price of $249.99 to $148.14.

Kindle Paperwhite 8GB ($79.99)

Kindle Paperwhite

Amazon’s Kindle Paperwhite is rated IPX8 waterproof, which means it can spend up to an hour submerged under two meters of water and continue to work. This model also has 8GB of storage space, giving you plenty of room to hold countless books. Right now it’s marked down from $129.99 to $79.99 from Amazon.

Netgear Nighthawk R6700 802.11ac AC1750 Smart WiFi Router ($79.99)

The Nighthawk R6700 is one of the most popular Wi-Fi routers on the market. It offers reliable performance with speeds of up to 1,750Mbps across two bands. It also has built-in USB ports for adding network resources. Right now it’s marked down from Newegg from $99.99 to $79.99.

Note: Terms and conditions apply. See the relevant retail sites for more information. For more great deals, go to our partners at TechBargains.com.

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Expertly Blur Background for Better Video Calls with 71 Percent Off XSplit VCam Premium

With video calls now forming such an important part of the way we do business, having a little extra tech to help you look your best and do your best work on camera is vital. Everyone has seen that one colleague who has something problematic in their background, or is just plain not visible due to poor lighting or camera positioning – and it doesn’t help their case if they’re trying to make a point or sell you on something. Having a clear camera view with control over your background is essential to appearing professional and engaged in video conference settings, and it’s not something that you can let slip if you’re aiming to succeed.

One service that can help is XSplit VCam Premium, lifetime subscriptions to which are currently available for the further reduced price of $17.40 when you use the coupon code VIP40 when you check out, meaning you get 71 percent off the full ordinary purchase price of $60. Improve your presence on video calls and conferences with this hand app.

The app XSplit VCam offers high-tech background replacement, removal, and blurring that’s possible to use with any webcam – and doesn’t require the use of green screens, complex lighting setups, or lots of space. All you need to do is open an app, add XSplit VCam as your camera source, and replace, remove, or blur your background. The app is compatible with a range of streaming software such as Open Broadcaster Software (OBS), Steamlabs, and XSplit, making it ideal for podcasts, vlogs, talk shows, or other video projects. It also works with all major video chat applications and conferencing solutions. It even lets you use your mobile device as a webcam via the app extension XSplit Connect: Webcam.

Lifetime subscriptions to XSplit VCam Premium are now on sale for $17.40 when you use the coupon code VIP40 when you check out, making it quicker and easier for you to look and be better in video productions and calls.

Note: Terms and conditions apply. See the relevant retail sites for more information. For more great deals, go to our partners at TechBargains.com.

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An Actual Hamster is Making Bank With Cryptocurrency

Crypto is absolutely lousy with memes: meme stocks, memes about stocks, and, inevitably, stonks. You’ve probably heard of Dogecoin by now, unless you have been off-world for several years (and in that case, how was the weather?). Based on the wildly popular shiba inu meme, business shibe is the mascot of Dogecoin, perhaps the best known of the B-list cryptocurrencies. But now, there is a living, breathing meme trading cryptocurrency with real money. Meet business hamster Mr. Goxx:

Okay, no, he’s shy. We’ll let him be.

All kidding aside, his career performance is better than Berkshire Hathaway. According to the business hamster’s Twitter, his investment portfolio is up nearly thirty percent since he scampered into the crypto market in June. Rest assured that these gains will be treated seriously: “Since Mr. Goxx is an honorable business rodent, he must calculate with about 35% tax being subtracted on all his returns, so there is still some work left before he can really talk about making money,” the hamster’s anonymous business partner explained in an interview.

The tiny financier lives in Germany. Although his owner is still unnamed, he has diagrammed the hamster’s setup in all its adorable, laser-cut glory. Mr. Goxx conducts his trades from the Goxx Box: the tiniest little trading office you could ever wish to see. He’s got a battle station with three monitors at his finely crafted desk. His newly constructed office has fitness equipment and custom woodwork. He even has an executive living suite attached to his private office, so he can come and go whenever he likes.

This little guy is hamsterdancing his way to fame, running on an actual wheel of fortune. The secret to his success really is his wheel: Mr. Goxx’s “intention wheel” determines which of a few dozen cryptocurrencies he’d like to trade. When he hops off, he can go through one of two nearby tunnels: one for “buy,” and one for “sell.” The “buy” tunnel purchases twenty euros of the selected crypto, while the “sell” tunnel “liquidates the entire position.”

Even though his trading tactics are pretty random, Mr. Goxx has made some deft moves. He sold dogecoin last week that he’d held since July, reaping a 46% return. He also made a tidy 54% profit selling off Chiliz, whose stock exchange callsign is literally CHZ. I get it, I’m an old, but this really is reaching some kind of critical mass of meme.

It really should go without saying that nobody should take a hamster’s crypto trading patterns as advice. With that said — the hamster is doing pretty well for himself. In fact, he was up nearly fifty percent (from $390 to $580), until Bitcoin took a tumble this week and dragged the rest of the crypto market along with it. Per NPR, “as of Sept. 12, Mr. Goxx was performing better than Bitcoin, the Nasdaq 100, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and the S&P 500.” Let the record show that I would very much like to give the business hamster a nice fresh strawberry for his outstanding efforts.

All images courtesy of @mrgoxx on Twitter.

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