The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), which collects, analyzes, and disseminates the country’s official vital statistics, released its provisional life expectancy report on Wednesday. The report finalizes lifespan data for 2019 and 2020 while providing provisional life expectancy data for those born in 2021. While the former years have sufficient death certificate data to confidently predict the lifespan of people born in the former years, death certificates from 2021 can still be changed. This might alter the 2021 life expectancy just a bit, but the available data is solid enough to provide a relatively reliable estimate, and it isn’t great.
With its 2.7-year decline, the provisional life expectancy for those born in 2021 marks the biggest drop in average lifespan for nearly a century. For people of some ethnic groups, this drop is even worse. American Indian and Alaskan Native people’s life expectancy dropped by 6.6 years between 2019 and 2021—a major loss especially when compared with white and Asian people’s life expectancies, which dropped by 2.4 years and 2.1 years respectively. In every single ethnic category, the male life expectancy dropped significantly more than that of the female.
The newly-calculated 76.1-year life expectancy applies to those born in 2021. (Photo: Solen Feyissa/Unsplash)
Though the NCHS didn’t provide discrepancies in causes of death for each ethnic category, it did break down the reasons for the decreased life expectancy overall. The organization reports that COVID-19 deaths were a significant player in Americans’ lifespan reduction, having been responsible for exactly 50 percent of the 2.7-year drop. Heart disease, chronic liver disease, suicide, and “unintentional injuries” also contributed to the decrease. The NCHS reported that these causes would have had a more significant impact on Americans’ projected lifespan if not for fewer deaths caused by influenza, pneumonia, chronic lower respiratory diseases, Alzheimer’s disease, perinatal conditions, and Parkinson’s.
It’s important to note that the 76.1-year life expectancy for those born in 2021 isn’t a sure-fired predictor of how long an individual will live, but a gauge of sorts allowing one to look at a society’s health as a whole. Life expectancies offer a high-level view of the impact of external circumstances, quality of life, medical care, and other factors that influence American lives. As the COVID-19 pandemic loses its edge and other medical advancements are discovered and perfected, this number will hopefully improve—if, of course, nothing new gets in the way.
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